Kahyna is one screen showing every prediction market, from every site, with our own estimate of the odds next to each one.
The house wins because it prices better than the crowd, not because it gets lucky. So we show you what the crowd is charging, what it would really cost you to trade, and what we think the odds are. Our track record is published beside it, wins and losses.
Recorded against the live product. Every screen in it is one the site was actually serving at the time. Press play, with sound.
The loss figures quoted at the start are not ours. They come from a working paper by researchers at the University of Toronto, HEC Montréal and ESSEC Business School, covering every Polymarket trade from 2022 to March 2026, covering 2.4 million users and $67bn of volume. It found 68.8% of users lost money and the top 1% took 76.5% of the profits. A separate Wall Street Journal analysis put the loss rate at 70%.
HOW IT WORKS
Kahyna does the cross-referencing. Which contract, at what size, and whether to bother at all stays with you.
Every contract we can reach, from every site, on one board. Sorted into rails so you are not reading fifty thousand rows: what pays most, what resolves soonest, what we are most confident about, and where we disagree with the crowd hardest.
The same market looks different depending on what you are after. Chase the big payout and you are buying a long shot. Chase the safe one and you are paying most of what it is worth. Both are on the card, priced. The trade-off is yours to make.
We do not take your money and we never hold a position. When you want to act, the card opens the exact contract on the venue that quoted it, at the price we walked the order book to find, not the headline quote that is often only a few dollars deep.
Paste any wallet and we settle its public trade history against the outcomes we recorded: what went right, what went wrong, and how much of it we could price at all. If disagreeing with us paid better, that is what it will say.
Every figure below is from a market that already resolved. Each one shows what a $100 stake would have returned at the price we recorded when the call was made.
We valued YES at 86¢. It cost 69¢.
We valued YES at 58¢. It cost 55¢.
We valued YES at 97¢. It cost 88¢.
We valued YES at 86¢. It cost 77¢.
We valued YES at 65¢. It cost 58¢.
We valued YES at 98¢. It cost 89¢.
These are wins. Across all 1,208 closed paper positions the average result is -5.4% per position, so the record is more accurate than the venue without being profitable. Past results are not a promise. See the full record →
Kahyna matches contracts by outcome across venues and re-derives every return from live quotes, fee-aware. An opportunity is published only when it clears the bar: a real cross-venue spread, or a model edge that actually beats the market. Big enough to survive fees, fresh enough to act on. When nothing qualifies, the board shows zero and points you at the raw markets instead. We publish nothing rather than show fake signals.
Kahyna is our spelling of Kahina, from the Arabic title al-Kāhina, “the diviner.” It is the name by which adversaries knew Dihyā, the 7th-century Amazigh leader of the Aurès who resisted Umayyad expansion, and whose reputation was for seeing what was coming. She endures in Amazigh cultural memory. We borrow the ambition with humility.
Zero opportunities clear the publish bar right now. We publish nothing rather than show fake signals. The markets we scan are live and real:
Browse the 57,190 live markets we're tracking →Two plans, one publish bar. Every tier sees the same honest math, never padded numbers.
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